Horse racing seems to be getting more and more complicated as horse players all over the world compete in mutuel pools trying to eke out a profit. Now there are sire ratings and track models and computer simulations and as if all that wasn’t enough, there are video horse races you can bet on. The only thing that I haven’t figured out is if I am supposed to handicap the software or the video horses.
As it gets crazier and crazier it is nice to stop and re-think the whole process and come back to reality. As ridiculously simple as it may sound, I can tell you what you need to do to succeed in just one sentence. Here it is…
Only bet on a horse when the odds are right.
That is the key to success when you’re betting on horses. It doesn’t matter whether the odds on your wager are 2-1, 5-1, or 50-1. If the horse will win often enough in that same scenario to pay for all your bets and make a profit, then you will be a successful horse player. I know what you’re thinking, “It’s not that easy.”
I didn’t say it was easy, just that it was simple. It doesn’t matter what horse racing system or method you use to choose your bets as long as they are going to hit often enough at the right odds to keep you in the black. If you make a bet on a horse with certain attributes in a particular type of race at the right odds, it will be profitable.
The problem for most people who try to beat the races is that they develop their own style or method that doesn’t work and then stick with it, hoping to get lucky. Here is how you break that cycle and start to make a profit. It isn’t easy to break old habits, but if you really want to succeed, here’s what you need to do.
Start by being a very good observer and handicap every race to the best of your ability making any pertinent notes about each horse in the race. Then assign what you consider to be fair value odds to each horse. This is your betting line. To make it simple, after you’ve looked the race over, you can look at the morning line odds for each horse and decide if you think the handicapper got it right. Write your own odds beside those morning line odds for each horse.
After the race, write the results and payoffs on your program. Now take them home and keep them until you have a good stack. Then take them out and start looking for scenarios that you can identify, such as an allowance horse of 3 years old dropping into a non-winners claiming race for the first time, etc. Once you have spotted some scenarios, start comparing the odds to what the winners paid and see if you can identify a fair odds value for such a horse. It just takes a few scenarios to develop spot plays that will make you money over and over again.
You may not find many of these, but every one you find is like gold. Now when you handicap a race, look for scenarios, your spot plays, and only bet them when the odds are above what you have determined are fair value odds. If they win one out of four races, then you need 4-1 odds in order to make a profit. For every $4 that you spend on bets, you will get back $5.
Now here is a warning. Things do not always stay the same and losing and winning streaks occur. Therefore, once you find a winning scenario, do not bet heavily or with more money than you can afford to lose. Be cautious, bet light and gradually build up a bankroll. As I said, things can change and there will be dry spells and good spells, so stretching your bankroll out over many bets is the smart thing to do, and you will never beat this game unless you are smart and protect that bankroll.
There it is in a nutshell, the secret to making money at the races.
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If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth. Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill’s handicapping store.
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