Handicapping Lessons From The Florida Derby to Apply to The …

If you want to learn how to handicap horse races and pick the winner of the Kentucky Derby then you’d better be ready to learn from the races leading up to the big dance in Kentucky on the first Saturday in May. While learning about the runners and the people who are guiding the young racing stars toward the most important race of their careers is helpful there are other lessons to be learned as well.

The 2012 Florida Derby, held at Gulfstream Park on March 31st, is a good example. Before the race the only two horses who were being hyped by the pundits were El Padrino and Union Rags. Both horses have been burning up the track and both had beaten other horses in the field including Take Charge Indy.

Now here are several points that a good handicapper would have picked up on or would be aware of going into the race. First of all, the track was fast and favored front running speed which Take Charge Indy had demonstrated in his last race when he set the fractions from the second call through the stretch finally relenting in the final strides to be beaten by El Padrino who’d stalked him throughout the race. The track condition was rated as “good,” that day (meaning it was somewhat off and didn’t favor speed) and had to have a negative effect on the colt.

Secondly, and this is one of the most important lesson you can ever learn about how to handicap horse races and how to pick winners, young horses such as the three year olds in this field, mature at different rates and also have growth spurts just like human children do. While Union Rags and El Padrino may have peaked in their three year old form cycle, Take Charge Indy may have been below his optimum ability in that cycle and may have hit it in the Florida Derby or may not as yet have hit it.

There are many other considerations, of course, such as the trip that Union Rags got and also the fact that Take Charge Indy wasn’t challenged as ferociously as he was in a previous race. On the other hand, any horse who finished within two lengths of the winner, as Take Charge Indy did when he faced Union Rags, may come back and turn the tables in his next race.

Finally, and here’s the last bit of handicapping knowledge, don’t listen to the hype. Make your own decisions based on good handicapping factors and use your own system to pick winners such as Take Charge Indy who paid a generous $17.40 for every $2 wagered on him to win.