If you are seriously trying to make money on your horse racing bets, but don’t have much money to make your wagers, you’ve probably figured out that you’re in for some tough sledding. Being under funded is one of the major reasons that small businesses fail. It is also one of the reasons that many gamblers fail. The less you have the more critical your money management plan, and yet, if you tighten up too much, you’ll miss the opportunity for a big score and a big score is exactly what you need.
While the well funded bettor who can make a $1,000 win bet without breaking into a cold sweat can grind it out and be content with a 10$ return, the small timer who wagers a total of $100 in a day is wasting his or her time trying to make 10% on total wagers. The $10 profit, if you’re lucky enough to make it, just isn’t going to cover your expenses and make a difference in your life.
Small timers need smart wagers that have a good return and also a good strike rate. Otherwise the effort is wasted. Now don’t get me wrong, everyone who handicaps horse races wants a good return and a good strike rate, but keeping those two factors in mind will help you when choosing your bets.
Let’s start with the strike rate first. Which bets are you best at picking? Do you do well handicapping maiden races and picking winners? If you have the highest strike rate with maidens then that is where you should start looking for your wagers. It all comes down to knowing your own strengths and weaknesses and then building on your strengths and avoiding weak spots in your play.
So find the race or races where you are most consistent and then start thinking about how you can turn little successes, like picking winners in maidens or turf races or whatever your specialty may be, into big payoffs. The safety and security of win bets may be appealing, but grinding it out with win bets just won’t make enough profit. You’re going to have to play exotics and in such a way as to score big.
Look at your choice. If you typically win on horses in the 2-1 to 5-2 range, and you cash about 35% of the time, then you’re going to need some long shots behind that winner to make a good trifecta or exacta. The way that you have identified a good bet for win is not how you find a good horse or horses to back up your choice.
Now it is time to throw a lot of the rules out the window and start thinking about value. There is usually very little value in playing the second and third favorites for second or third in an exotic bet unless you have a longshot on top. If you have a short priced horse on top, then it is time to look at the hroses at longish odds and find a runner with a reason to make it into your exacta.
This is where one or two good angles, such as early speed in a race where early speed is important, or post position, or some other factor may help to move this long shot into your exotic bet. Obviously, there must be a reason for the runner to be at long odds, so you’ll have to forgive it if the jockey doesn’t win very often or the horse has had a long layoff, etc. You aren’t looking for perfection when making choices for second and third, you’re looking for angles and a horse that will almost win. Some horses and jockeys are experts at almost winning.
Use your top choice in the win slot and back it up with flawed runners with at least one redeeming value and you will often find yourself cashing a generous mutuel. Let the crowd bet the logical contenders for second and third. They’ll cash often but not enough to cover the cost of their bets. On the other hand, you’ll cash almost as often and make a profit. That’s what it’s all about when you don’t have a big bankroll and need a good cash flow.
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