There are lots of ways to combine handicapping factors to find horse racing winners. Two of the most important horse racing factors are class and pace. Knowing how to combine them and spot good betting situations can lead to good payoffs on horses that may be under valued by the betting public.
Before we get into the method of combining them, however, let’s talk about each one separately and make sure we’re on the same page. Class is perhaps the most difficult handicapping component because it is hard to define. Some people think that it is best determines by simply looking at the purse amounts in a horse’s past races. Others feel that purse value alone doesn’t tell the whole story. For instance, you can start a horse in a graded stakes race, but that doesn’t mean it is competitive in that class.
If you want to define class accurately, perhaps you need to determine whether a horse was able to challenge the eventual winner at any point in the race or if it ran behind, how far behind it ran. An example would be a horse that maintained a 5 length deficit, running 5 lengths behind the eventual winner of the race, throughout the race. Such a horse might well be a good bet if dropped one or two levels.
That is why I like to determine class by identifying some point in the race that the horse did in fact challenge or run with the horses who finished on the board. A good rule of thumb that I have found is that any runner finishing within two lengths of the winner must be considered as capable of competing in the class of that race.
A horse that was within two lengths of the front runner at the half call should be able to drop a tick or two and compete with lesser horses.
Therefore, to use class and pace successfully, I look for a superior pace figure at the half, or early stages, and then a significant drop in class. A horse who raced within two lengths to the half and finished off the board that is now dropping from a $20,000 claimer to a $15,000 claimer may well be competitive. Such a runner who is dropping from a $20,000 into anything below $10,000 has an excellent chance of winning.
Naturally, this is not a one factor play and you still have to apply other handicapping rules and methods, but it is a start to identifying real contenders.
If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth. Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill’s handicapping store.
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