You’ve probably heard this said before, “These horses have raced so many times against each other, it’s just a matter of whose turn it is to win. They just take turns.”
On any racing circuit there are certain horses who always seem to wind up in the same races. Usually this occurs with claimers or cheap handicap races. First one horse from the group will win and then another one of the horses will win and it really does seem like the trainers are taking turns, but that usually isn’t the case. What is actually happening is that the horses are so evenly matched that a minor advantage is all it takes for one of them to win.
Many times in these races, the favorite fails. That is good news for an astute handicapper, but before we get too excited about the possibility of winning, let’s be honest with ourselves. This is one of the toughest races to handicap because they have all shown that they are capable at this level.
Another problem is that we can’t read their minds to know which one is feeling its best and which one will get a good break, etc. So how do you handicap this race? First of all, there are many times when you should pass a race like this because it really is too close to call. On the other hand, look for value. If a horse has won at this level against this group, why can’t it do it again? If the odds are right, go for it.
The truth is that the trainers and other insiders often don’t have a clue as to which horse will win a race like that, but put their horse in because they know that given a break or in the right circumstances, their horse can win.
If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth. Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill’s handicapping store.
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