Horse Racing Secrets of Workouts and the Ten Percent Rule

If you ask the average horse player how well he or she understands workouts, he or she would probably say, “Very well.”  While almost everyone who handicaps horse races knows how to read workout times and understands the numbers, few know how to use that information in a way to really figure out which horse is ready to win.

Every day, I see horse players look at two horses with a 36 second workout for 3 furlongs and figure each horse is equally fit and ready to win.  Nothing could be farther from the truth.  Almost everything in horse racing handicapping is relational and that is especially true of workouts.  They are part of a system that the conditioner uses to get his or her horse into the winners circle and the path is often a murky one for many bettors to follow.

It probably won’t surprise you to learn that the trainers, owners, grooms, jockeys, and others from the backstretch bet on horse races.  They are the insiders and have control over the animals that you are betting on.  So why would they show you how good the horse is with a workout when they know you’ll bet it like crazy and they won’t get good odds?

The truth is that many trainers don’t bet too much on a horse of theirs, or if they do, they do it openly and don’t try to hide the horses form.  Then again, there are others who deliberately do everything in their power to keep you from guessing that they are about to pull the trigger and go for the win.  How else would there be so many long shots and non favorites that win horse races?

The favorite in a race usually deserves to be the public’s choice and is the fastest horse in the race. So why do they only win 30 percent of the time or even less?  The answer is that the chalk is the best looking horse on paper at face value.  In other words, if what you are reading is true, then that horse is the best.  But obviously, that isn’t always the case, so what is it that you’re reading that isn’t true?

While there are some inaccuracies in the past performances, most of them are actually pretty accurate.  The problem isn’t that you are reading false information, it is that you are not really seeing and understanding what you are reading.  Workouts are facts that are recorded by professional clockers.  They don’t lie.  On the other hand, what does it mean when trainer X works a 3 year old 3 furlongs in 35?  What does it mean when the next work for the horse is a 4 furlong in 49?

Here is where the ten percent rule comes into play and if you don’t know this you’re missing some of the most vital information in horse racing handicapping.  Really good horse players know that the time and distances of workouts and the pattern is critical and can tell you who the trainer is by the pattern.  They can also tell you when the trainer finally thinks his horse is ready and will go for the win.  That is why 90 percent of the people lose and ten percent win.

If you look at workout times and take them at face value and don’t really put it all together into a logical pattern and then compare it to all other factors, you will remain in the 90 percent who lose and never know why.  Some people go to the race track for years, lose constantly, and look at those figures every day and still don’t see what they’re looking at.

The secret to workout times is in understanding patterns and trainers and applying them to different situations.