Horseracing Handicapping Longshots Using Trainer Moves

On February 9th in the second race at Tampa Bay Downs, a horse named “Apple Talk,” won and paid $87 for every $2 bet to win on this lightly raced four year old.  Horseracing handicapping looking for longshots is tough and Apple Talk wasn’t giving away any secrets unless you were familiar with the trainer and his moves. Apple Talk was dropping from the Maiden Special Weight ranks to Maiden Claiming.  That is supposed to be the biggest class drop in history.  But several other horses in the race were also making the same drop and had fared much better in their last race, a race that Apple Talk lost by over 23 lengths.

Looking at Apple Talk’s only two prior starts and how he had done so poorly explains why he went off at such long odds.  How he managed to stage the upset is not so clear. According to the official track program there were no equipment changes since his last dismal performance.  There was a jockey change to an apprentice and subsequently a ten pound weight allowance that certainly didn’t hurt.  But to make such a big move as Apple Talk did and to win so convincingly at such long odds, one would think something pretty significant had to happen.

He is listed in the program as a gelding.  It wasn’t announced that he had been gelded since his last race.  Gelding a horse can make a big difference and I call it the most significant equipment change in racing.  I am sure other males would agree with me.  However, we have no indication that Apple Talk was recently gelded.

Obviously some people bet on Apple Talk.  A look at the pools did indicate some inside money (see True Handicapping for a method to check the pools for inside money), but not a lot as is evidenced by the huge mutuel.  Apple Talk appeared to be a sleeper.

So how could you tell that this horse was going to win?  Unless you were psychic, you had to know something about the horse and trainer.  Did this trainer ever pull this move before?  Entering a horse in a long turf race (Apple Talk’s first effort was a mile on the turf in MSW ranks) and then in a long race on the dirt (a mile and forty yards in MSW company) is a good way to condition a horse.  It doesn’t look like he was pushed in either race.  

A trainer might see his or her horse just isn’t good enough to compete with the MSW horses but put him in for a few conditioning races then drop to a soft spot in the maiden claiming ranks.  The only way to know for sure is to know the trainer’s habits.  The only way to know a trainer’s habits is to pay attention and keep notes.  Specializing in one or two circuits and keeping good notes can payoff in huge figures.  I have to confess, before this race, I didn’t know that was one of this trainer’s moves, but you can be certain that I know now.  Ask yourself this, how many people who saw that race can now tell you who the trainer was and what the move was?

If you are one of the few who remembers or was paying attention, you may be one of the few who cashes a big win ticket on the next maiden he brings along this way.  And that is how you handicap longshots in horse racing.