How Important Are Speed Figures in Horse Racing Handicapping

The golden age of speed handicapping died many years ago.  Those were the days when a single factor, speed, could be used to find overlays that produced profits merely based on the difference in relative speed between horses.

How relevant is speed, then, and how much importance should be placed on speed figures?  I look at it two ways.  Speed figures can work for you or against the crowd, your competition when you’re handicapping horse races for profit.  The trick, of course, is to know when to go with the speedy horse and when to go against it.

If you think of the handicapping battle as a fight between you and that behemoth, the crowd, you will see that some fancy footwork and tactics are necessary.  You must zig and zag at the right time.  The way you do this is by reading the crowd and understanding what they are thinking.

For instance, if you see that a horse has a speed figure in its last race that is far superior to any other runner in the race and that horse is a favorite at very low odds, then you have an obvious situation of speed mania.  That figure stands out on the page and the crowd becomes blinded to any short comings of this runner or possible hidden  attributes of another.

This is an excellent example of a time to dig and look for a reason to bet another horse, but don’t make things up in your mind.  It has to be a rational, hard copy angle.  Let’s say that another runner that has won at the track and distance in the past is coming back after a layoff and has had two races since its rest.  Those two races were on muddy tracks and today’s race is on a fast track.

While the horse with the big speed advantage is tough to pass over, the odds are the key to a possible profit situation.  There is the possibility of the layoff horse turning in a big effort.  It was compromised in its last two races by a track that was off and it has had two races to tighten it up.  If the odds are high enough on this one and just too low on the favorite, then this horse becomes the best bet, even though it may lose more often than it wins in this situation, the large payoffs will offset that and result in a profit over time.

This is a time when speed figures work against a crowd that is dazzled by that one number and who ignore other possibilities.

Now let’s reverse that situation.  Let’s suppose that there is a horse with a superior speed figure in a race with horses who each have a serious knock against them such as, horses who have had a long layoff and no tighteners, horses who have never won at the level or distance, etc.  The speed horse is a favorite and if the odds are not too low, it is understandable to bet that one, even though it is the favorite.

In each situation you are still using the speed figure as one factor in an approach that recognizes all the other factors of horse racing handicapping.