Everyone spends so much time looking for the best bet in a horse race that little attention is spent on determining what the worst bet may be.  Believe it or not, sometimes the worst bet has many thousands of dollars wasted on it and also is backed by a large number of the bettors.  You may have even made the bet yourself, in fact, you may make it all the time.

Don’t worry, there is a cure for bad wagers.  It is called information and experience.  What is the worst bet in horse racing?  It may often be the favorite.  A lot of handicappers write about false favorites, but even if a favorite, the chalk, has a legitimate chance to win, it doesn’t make it a good bet.

The truth of the matter is that the favorite is almost always bet down below its fair value odds.  Fair value odds mean a break even point for the investor.  In other words, if you back the horse a certain number of times, let’s say 20, and it wins a certain number of times, we’ll say 6 since it’s the favorite, will the total of the payoffs equal the total amount bet?

If you wager on the horse in a similar situation 20 times, using a $2 minimum bet as our example, you’d invest $40.  Now total the 6 wins and see what you have.  Let’s say the average payoff is $6.  $6 times 6 equals $36.  That’s $4 less than you invested so the horse was bet down below fair value odds.

Before betting on any horse, ask yourself how many times it would win out of ten races or twenty races and then apply the same math.  As you get better at estimating the probability that a certain runner will win, you’ll also get better at making profitable wagers and you’ll also find that favorites are rarely worth the risk.

I’ve focused on the favorite because they are the number one culprits when it comes to poor wagers, but when it comes right down to it, any horse that is bet down below its fair value odds is a bad bet and yet, people line up to back them every day. If you become successful at estimating the probability of each horse winning the race, you can then set your own morning line odds.  Of course, it isn’t really a morning line, it is more of your own private betting line.  Stick with your betting line and you’ll be amazed at how much less you lose and how much more you win.

There are no guarantees that you’ll be able to beat this game, it is very risky, but this kind of practice and mindset will help.