important factor

The Most Important Factor in Horse Racing Handicapping

February 28, 2013 By Admin Leave a Comment

The major factors when handicapping a horse race are speed, class, form. Which of the three do you think is the most important? While you may argue that the fastest horse usually wins the race, is the fastest horse the one with the highest speed rating in its past performances?

You may see that one runner scored the highest speed figure by 5 points, but that was a year ago. So then you may have to set a few rules for determining the fastest or speediest horse. Naturally, as in the case I just mentioned, time is the most important factor in determining which horse is the fastest one now.

So we can say that the horse with the highest speed rating in the last 60 days is the fastest and therefore gets the vote on speed. But what if that speed rating was at a much lower class than today’s race and the field the horse is facing today. For instance, if a horse earns a 100 speed figure against $10,000 claimers but is facing $50,000 claimers today, will it earn a 100 rating? Probably not, so we’ll have to also add the class factor.

We can say that the horse who has the highest speed rating in the last 60 days against horses at this level or higher class is the horse. But if we do that, we’re using all three factors and can’t separate which one gets the nod.

In my opinion, form is the most important factor because it is a measure of speed, class, and recency. It is a snapshot of the horse at a particular time and place, namely, here and now, or at least its most recent race in the recent past. Form is the answer to that age old question, “What have you done for me lately?”

Lately is the key, but so is “what.” That is the question that form answers. In your handicapping always ask that question and if possible you might want to consider giving an ability number to a horse based on that very question and the form factor. The way to arrive at the ability number is to determine a specific time limit of how far you will go back in a horse’s races to find the key race.

The key race is the one that answers that question. It must have been within a certain number of days. In other words, how long does a horse hold its current form? Then you must look at class. If you say the horse had to have run at a certain level, that helps, too. Finally, the speed rating that the horse earned under those conditions would be the actual ability number.

google_ad_client = “pub-2311940475806896”;
/* 468×15, created 1/16/11 */
google_ad_slot = “0798401241”;
google_ad_width = 468;
google_ad_height = 15;

Author Box

Bill Peterson has 1 articles online

If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth. Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill’s handicapping store.

Filed Under: Horse Racing Articles Tagged With: horse race, important factor

X Factor Horse Racing Handicapping for Profitable Betting

October 17, 2012 By Admin Leave a Comment

Do you know what the most important factor in horse racing handicapping is? Many people would say speed is the single most important factor. While speed is still relevant even though it is over bet, because it is so heavily favored by the public, you just can’t make money if you weight it too heavily.

Class is another one of those basic factors in horse racing that is used to the maximum. It is a little more difficult to quantify at times, but the information is still available and therefore the crowd is all over it. There is some logic in this of course. The winner is almost always a horse dropping in class or racing at the same level. It is difficult for a horse to move up in class and win.

The third factor is the jockey. Many people just bet a horse based on the rider. As far as they re concerned, the jockey and his or her agent is a better judge of horse flesh than he or she is and therefore, why not just bet on anything they pick as a possible winner? Once again, there is some logic in this. It is also true that some riders show a flat bet profit on their mounts for some meets.

While putting all these basics together is important to rate the horses and find fair value in the pools, the most important thing is often the one thing you can’t foresee. I call it the X Factor. It isn’t just found in horse racing, either. While some things work out very well on paper, if you’ve been trying to win money on the races or involved in almost any other endeavor that involved money, you know that just because things work on paper, it doesn’t mean they will work in real life.

In horse racing, about 80% of the races are logical. After the race is over, one of the logical contenders has won. In the other 20% a horse won who seemed to have little chance of winning. Why it won may be a mystery. Perhaps it was racing luck or something the trainer did that wasn’t apparent on paper. The important thing to remember about this is that you have to add this into your equation when you are looking for fair value in the pools.

Many people make a morning line based on the pool minus the takeout and breakage. So if the takeout and breakage amount to 20% they subtract that from 100% and wind up with 80%. Then they assign what they deem fair odds by disbursing that among the runners. So if a horse has a one in four chance of winning, or 25% chance, then 25%x80%=20%. Therefore, that horse becomes profitable at 4-1.

But what about the unknown? You must also account for that other 20%. Do you therefore subtract another 20%? No. You subtract 20% of 80% or 16%. The final result is a pool of 66%. If you stick with a pool of 66%, disburse it fairly based on each horse’s probability, you have a chance to be profitable. It is still only a chance and definitely not easy to make a profit, but it is a chance. If you don’t factor that other 20% in, you will keep losing and wondering why.

Author Box