Picking horse racing winners by spotting big speed figures is not hard to do, but unfortunately, it doesn’t pay well enough to make your bets profitable.  Just sticking with the horse with the highest last speed fig or average will only result in low priced winners and your losses will outweigh your winnings.  You need to dig deeper to make money betting on horses.  One angle that works well is to identify a middle move that shows real ability.

By identifying a move during a race that doesn’t stand out to the crowd, but shows a horse is ready to win at the right level, you can cash a winning ticket at a good price if the horse is dropped in class.  But how do you know when a horse is ready to win?  Pace figures can help you to see secret moves that others miss.  For instance, it isn’t just how high a runner’s pace figures are that matters.  It is also how they change throughout the contest.

Let’s say a horse starts in a $10,000 claiming race and shows a 60 pace figure for the first quarter.  In the next quarter it registers an 85.  It finishes the race with a 65 and a final speed figure of 65.  The eventual winner of the race finished with an 80 and posted an early pace figure of 70, and second quarter of 72 with a final speed figure of 74.  It appears that the first horse was severely over matched.

But look closer at those pace and speed figures and look at the tremendous move our loser made between the first and second quarter calls.  It accelerated from a 60 pace figure to an 85!  In other words, the jockey sprinted the horse all out in the early stages of the race and challenged the leader only to drop back.  He used his horse up at the wrong point.

The winner sprinted out of the gate and posted an 80 leaving the loser behind, but the second quarter found the loser racing up to contend with the front runner only to fade.  The jockey made up too much ground and lost all chance of winning due to haste.

Now was that intentional?  Did the trainer want to know if the horse was fit and ready and had a chance to win at a slightly lower level?  The answer may well be, yes.  That was a  very athletic move and cost the runner any chance at winning.  Now if it is dropped to a lower level, it may maintain a more rational pace and easily compete throughout all stages of the event.

What makes this a great betting angle?  The crowd will look at the final speed figure and see a 65, 9 points lower than the eventual winner.  If that is also lower than the par for the race it is in today at a lower class, they may dismiss the horse and figure it is still over matched, while nothing could be further from the truth.  

Look closely at each pace figure for a horse and learn to spot big differences that mean there was a middle move in a race that sapped the horse’s reserves and set it up for failure.  It may well get a better and smoother trip next time out and win easily.