The Best Bets Aren't Usually on the Best Horse – Horse – EzineMark

When you handicap a horse race your first objective is to evaluate the runners and to determine which one is best.  That’s the one you expect to be the favorite.  Sometimes, however, the horse you figure as second best is the one the crowd makes the top choice.  That is understandable, especially when they are closely matched.  Once you’ve found the best horse the next step is the most important one in horse racing handicapping.

I am talking about finding the best bet.  That is the horse that will make you money.  While watching them run is fun and a day at the track is an enjoyable way to spend the day, when push comes to shove, it’s about the money, because that is what keeps you going and without it, it’s back to the salt mines.  Losing one’s bankroll is a one way ticket to Palookaville.

Successful handicappers therefore have to be able to identify the best horse and then the best bet.  Usually, neither of these tasks can be accomplished until just minutes before the race.  You can’t make these calculations based on the past performances alone.  When it comes to handicapping, you can learn a lot from the past performances, but you also should actually look at the horses and do some visual handicapping as well.  A horse that looks mediocre on paper may have improved since the last time out and may show it in the post parade by being the one who is on its toes and who looks like a million.

When it comes to value bets, you should have an idea of each runner’s chances of winning and that will determine what you think is a fair price.  Only have after looking them over in the paddock or post parade can you make your final observations and certify the odds you tentatively placed on them.  At that point you need to check the tote board to see which ones are bet under and over the figures you set for the contenders.

Then, if you can find one at the right price, that is your key horse.  But if you really want to succeed at horse racing handicapping, you need to adopt this wait and see attitude.  Making up your mind too far ahead of time denies the reality that horses are living breathing animals and the crowd is fickle.  You have to check on out on the tote board and one out on the track before risking your money.  Therefore, your best bet is to wait and watch and only make your move when the odds are right.