The Most Important Factor in Horse Racing Handicapping

The major factors when handicapping a horse race are speed, class, form.  Which of the three do you think is the most important?  While you may argue that the fastest horse usually wins the race, is the fastest horse the one with the highest speed rating in its past performances?

You may see that one runner scored the highest speed figure by 5 points, but that was a year ago.  So then you may have to set a few rules for determining the fastest or speediest horse.  Naturally, as in the case I just mentioned, time is the most important factor in determining which horse is the fastest one now.

So we can say that the horse with the highest speed rating in the last 60 days is the fastest and therefore gets the vote on speed.  But what if that speed rating was at a much lower class than today’s race and the field the horse is facing today.  For instance, if a horse earns a 100 speed figure against $10,000 claimers but is facing $50,000 claimers today, will it earn a 100 rating?  Probably not, so we’ll have to also add the class factor.

We can say that the horse who has the highest speed rating in the last 60 days against horses at this level or higher class is the horse.  But if we do that, we’re using all three factors and can’t separate which one gets the nod.

In my opinion, form is the most important factor because it is a measure of speed, class, and recency.  It is a snapshot of the horse at a particular time and place, namely, here and now, or at least its most recent race in the recent past.  Form is the answer to that age old question, “What have you done for me lately?”

Lately is the key, but so is “what.”  That is the question that form answers.  In your handicapping always ask that question and if possible you might want to consider giving an ability number to a horse based on that very question and the form factor.  The way to arrive at the ability number is to determine a specific time limit of how far you will go back in a horse’s races to find the key race.

The key race is the one that answers that question.  It must have been within a certain number of days.  In other words, how long does a horse hold its current form?  Then you must look at class.  If you say the horse had to have run at a certain level, that helps, too.  Finally, the speed rating that the horse earned under those conditions would be the actual ability number.