Three Ways to Spot Long Shots When Horseracing Handicapping

There are few thrills in life that can compare with betting on a long shot and watching it cross the finish line first.  Cashing a big mutuel ticket is good for the ego and the bankroll.  But as anyone who has been horse racing handicapping for very long knows, chasing long shots is an almost certain way to lose your bankroll and completely deflate your ego.

Long shots are typically thought of as the bait for gamblers to get them to take a shot at something with low probability and high risk.  It adds to the pools, but most serious handicappers try to stay with horses they see as consistent. Serious horse racing handicapping and gambling don’t mix.  If you want to make a profit and stay in the game then you have to curb your gambling desire and learn to look at each bet as an investment and calculate expected return compared to risk.  Sounds good, but it is hard to practice.

For investment purposes, comparing risk to return, learning to spot a situation when a long shot is a good investment means you have to have an idea of the probability of how often a horse in a certain situation will win.  There are three situations that will allow you to take a serious look at long shots without feeling like a long shot Louie or Luanne.

1. A false favorite.  We’ve all heard that the place to start handicapping a race is with the favorite.  If you determine that a favorite is suspect then it is reasonable to look at the next tier of contenders.  If no horse in the next tier has accomplished what is being asked of them, then a long shot might fit the bill if you can find a horse that has won at the distance, on the same surface, with the same conditions.  This is one of the most overlooked angles in racing.  I have seen many races where only one horse in the race had done what was asked of it that day and yet some other unproven horses were getting all the money.

We’ve all heard the phrase, “Horses for courses.”  Well, if the favorite hasn’t done what is being asked of it then it is just as unproven as any other horse in the race.  A good example is a horse that won at 6 furlongs, but has never won around two turns.  How do you know it will settle into the pace?  Have the stamina?  You don’t.  On the other hand if there is another horse who has done it in the past, has a competent jockey and trainer, then that  horse may be a reasonable bet, especially at long odds.  It may well be that the connections have been holding the horse back waiting for just such a scenario.  So a false favorite against a proven horse with good connections is our first case where a long shot may be a good bet.

2. Proven trainer moves at long odds are a good long shot strategy.  Every trainer has his or her little bag of tricks.  Learn trainer moves and you will spot some long shots worth a wager.  For instance, on February 9th in the second race at Tampa Bay Downs, a horse named “Apple Talk,” won and paid $87 for every $2 bet to win.  

There were clues that Apple Talk might do better in that race than in the previous two outings.  Using a mutuel pool evaluation method (see True Handicapping for a method to check the pools for inside money), it was obvious that the horse was getting some backing from inside money. The stable had determined that the horse was ready to move up.

Apple Talk was in a Maiden Claiming sprint race after two previous outings in longer Special Weight Races.  it was a drop in class off two conditioning races for a lightly raced horse.  This is a significant trainer move and knowing if this trainer had used the move in the past could have tipped off any one who took the time to study trainer moves.  Another important thing to remember is that in any maiden race, the favorite is being asked to win at a distance and surface that it has never won on or at before.  In other words all maiden favorites qualify for the conditions of case 1. a false favorite, though in all fairness, many maiden favorites do win.

3. Equipment changes can make a huge difference in a horse’s performance.  Adding a tongue tie, Cornell collar, blinkers or other equipment changes, including the addition of lasix, can move a horse forward dramatically.  Whenever there is an equipment change on a horse, use the pools monitoring method discussed in True Handicapping (see the link above) and also look at the recent works.  Any works since the horse’s last race should be watched carefully for an improvement or in the best case scenario, a Willie.  A trainer will often make an equipment change and try it in the morning before using it in a race.

Of course the ideal situation is to find a race with a false favorite and then identify a horse who meets one or two of the other criteria mentioned here, either an equipment change with backing in the pools or a strong trainer move.  Look closely at the last few long shots you’ve seen and you will find they qualify for at least two of these criteria most of the time.

So to sum it up, check the favorite first and see if it is legit or suspect.  If it is suspect, then see who else is suspect.  If you can eliminate enough of the other “contenders” then you may be able to spot a long shot that warrants a bet.