Top Contenders for the Belmont Stakes: Updated

1. Animal Kingdom – he will be much closer to the pace this time than the 18 lengths he fell behind in the Preakness, a positioning that likely compromised his chances in that race. The pace is generally much slower in the Belmont, so I expect him to lay no more than five lengths off of the pace. He will start to make his run on Shackleford on the far turn and I think he will overtake him by the ¼ mile pole. He will then have to hold off Nehro and Mucho Macho Man.

1. Nehro – He will be a formidable rival because he has had 5 weeks rest since the Kentucky Derby unlike his more battle fatigued rivals Animal Kingdom, Mucho Macho Man, and Shackleford. He has to be careful not to make his run too early though. He lay much closer to the pace in the Derby than most thought, being typically a deep closer. He probably won’t be stalking the pace but will likely lay 4 to 6 lengths off the pace.

2. Shackleford – Most thought the 1 3/16 distance of the Preakness was too far for him, but he defied expectations. This time, however, I don’t expect him to pull off the shocker again. He has as much heart as anyone and will be hanging tough in mid stretch but will give up the lead to another horse I think.

3. Master of Hounds – This one should not be taken too lightly, as he did finish a respectable fifth in the Derby, beaten only 5 ½ lengths. His pedigree suggests 1 ½ might be well within his range, and he is going to be overlooked a bit.

4. Mucho Macho Man – He is our dark horse to upset Animal Kingdom. He had a poor showing in the Preakness but we can’t dismiss him yet. He showed enough improvement in the Derby and was striding out strongly toward the finish, both of which suggest he might be able to handle the Belmont. Some have said he lacks the breeding, being by Macho Uno, but Macho Uno was a very capable 1 ¼ horse, finishing a good fourth in the 2001 Breeder’s Cup Classic in one of the strongest Classic fields ever.

5. Brilliant Speed – His sire Dynaformer is primarily a grass sire but did breed Barbaro who did very well on the dirt. We are still not sure if he is better as a grass runner or not, and his 7^th place finish in the Derby did little to clear matters up. Still, he was only beaten 5 ½ lengths and he was 8 wide turning into the stretch in the Derby, so maybe with a cleaner trip he could’ve gotten within 3 lengths of Animal Kingdom? His sire does breed horses to go the 1 ½ distance so stamina should not be a problem if “like father like son” holds true in his case.

6. Santiva – He finished 6^th in the Derby but basically finished in a photo with the above-mentioned Brilliant Speed, beaten the same margin, 5 ½ lengths. His sire Giant’s Causeway was certainly capable of running distances even longer than 1 ½ so he has the breeding and he gained a couple of lengths in the stretch. I can definitely see him finishing in the money.

7. Stay Thirsty – Sorry my friends, but this is not the most interesting horse in the world. He is a grandson of 1992 Belmont winner A.P. Indy, but he showed little in the Derby and his best race to date was a 3 length win in the Gotham, in which he did not break a 90 speed figure.

8. Prime Cut – Interesting horse who finished third in the Peter Pan, but lost ground to the winner in the final 1/8 of a mile. Now he has 3 more furlongs to go. Pass.

9. Monzon – He has never placed in a graded stakes, much less won one. Finished 3 lengths behind the above-mentioned Prime Cut in the Peter Pan Stakes with no excuse. Not likely.

In the end, the 2011 Belmont Stakes has actually brought together a very competitive field and some unique betting opportunity. The way we look at it, you can probably make a case for 7 of the 12 horses; the other 5 are just throw-aways. Why don’t you tell us your opinion, and if you had $100 to bet, who would you bet – or, what exotic bets would you make? Let’s have some fun. We’re a fantasy site and let’s get some fantasy wagers down and then compare results when the race is over.” target=”_blank”>exotic bets would you make? Let’s have some fun. We’re a fantasy site and let’s get some fantasy wagers down and then compare results when the race is over.